I’ve got a couple small wins for you today. When it seems like there’s a flood of bad news and everything is unpredictable, I think it’s important to highlight the bright spots when we see them. I’ll button things up for you at the end (and share something fascinating to look forward to).

Small Win #1: The Economy Bounced Back in Q3

U.S. economic growth made a comeback last quarter – the economy grew 2.6% after shrinking in the first half of 2022. That’s good news because it means we’re not in a recession (yet).1

But, there’s a couple of caveats we should pay attention to:

  1. This data is only a first estimate. It’ll be revised twice before it’s final.
  2. A recession is still more likely than not, with an uncertain growth picture for 2023.2

Small Win #2: The Social Security Administration Announced the Biggest Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) in Four Decades

Because of this year’s red-hot inflation, Social Security beneficiaries will see a COLA of 8.7% in 2023.3

On top of the (tiny) drop in 2023 Medicare Part B premiums, this is good news for the retirees (and low-income kids and families) who have seen inflation take a big bite out of their income.

So, is the bear market over? Is the bottom behind us?

There’s no way to know for sure, but it’s not likely. The Federal Reserve decision to hike interest rates 0.75% is likely to weigh further on markets, though there’s some indication they may consider slowing the pace of hikes in the future.4

So, let’s stay flexible and remember that those good and bad market days often cluster.

Bottom Line: The overall market and economic picture looks as uncertain and hazy as ever. But there are good weeks (and months) and small wins along the way. Let’s take a moment to appreciate them.


Sources:

  1. Latest GDP report shows the US economy bounced back last quarter after shrinking in the first half of the year | CNN Business
  2. 100% probability of U.S. recession in coming year, according to Bloomberg Economics forecast model – MarketWatch
  3. Social Security to Increase 8.7 Percent in 2023 – CPA Practice Advisor
  4. Fed approves 0.75-point hike to take rates to highest since 2008 and hints at change in policy ahead (cnbc.com)

Disclosure:

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